What’s Wrong with Tommy Hanson?

Tommy Hanson allowed one run tonight through five innings against a depleted Marlins’ lineup. He gave up one run in his last start, also against the Marlins—an outing that lasted five innings and netted him his 11^th win of the year. Don’t let the end results fool you: these were poor starts, which continue a trend that started last year and has continued to get worse over the course of the 2012 season. Let's dig into his numbers, history, and peripherals to find out where his production is slipping and what he needs to do to improve from here on out.

------When Tommy burst onto prospect lists after a solid 2008 and an electric 11 starts in 2009, he had the look of a power pitcher who could rack up strikeouts, limit walks, and be a very strong number one or two starter for the foreseeable future. In 2009, his rookie year, he lived up to the hype, posting a 2.89 ERA, a 3.50 FIP, and racked up 2.6 WAR in 127.2 innings. He followed up his strong rookie year by improving in year two, slashing his FIP to 3.31 as he cut his walks to under 2.50/9, while increasing his groundball percentage by a point and half. Since then, he’s regressed far beyond his rookie numbers and appears to be sliding hard. While he raised his strikeout rate to more than one and inning in 2011, his walk rate regressed back to slightly above 3 per 9, and his homerun rate ballooned. Couple with an increase in flyballs, Hanson allowed a career high in homers and he posted an FIP of 3.67. In 2012, the wheels have all but fallen off. The strikeouts are down to approximately 8 per 9, the walks approaching 4 per 9, and the homerun rate has grown to nearly 1.5 per 9. Clearly location is an issue, and Fangraphs’Pitch F/X heatmaps show Hanson sits higher in the zone than is ideal. However, he’s always sat high in the zone, and his location hasn’t changed much from 2009. The homeruns and hard contact weren’t issues before, perhaps indicating another issue. In the offseason, Hanson reworked his delivery in an attempt to cut down on baserunners by “getting rid of his hitch,” which is still very, very present. In an attempt to improve himself in cutting down on the running game, he may have compromised his ability to do his primary job: get batters out.

Hanson averaged around 92 MPH in his first two years in the league. His velocity has fallen off for two straight years now, dropping over 1.5 MPH from 2010-11 and another 1+ MPH this year. Video can help explain some of the issue:

Tommy Hanson - 2009


Tommy Hanson - 2012

In 2009, we see Hanson’s delivery is much more violent. He’s generating a lot more velocity by utilizing a much fuller body rotation and arm whip. While his follow through is less than ideal, he’s at least able to maximize velocity with his motion. In 2012, his arm decelerates much less violently, and there’s less rebound in his follow through. This is much healthier on the shoulder, but he’s accomplishing this by not using his full body rotation, costing him velocity. For a pitcher whose control has never been outstanding, a 2.5+ MPH drop in velocity can be deadly, and it shows in the numbers. His fastball posted a positive pitch value for the first two years of his career, peaking at 0.71 runs per 100 thrown in 2010. In 2011, the first year of severe velocity drop, that value fell by almost a run and a half, with a wFB/C of -0.76. In 2012, that value stands at -1.61. Despite his fastball becoming much slower and vastly less effective every year, its usage rate has increased for three straight years. Hanson has always been a fastball pitcher, and currently throws it over 54% of the time. Getting his fastball back is paramount to his success as a pitcher, and reworking his delivery to maximize his physical potential should be first and foremost on his agenda.

More limp: This fish or my fastball?

The attempt to cut down on base thefts hasn’t exactly worked out. He’s given up 20 steals so far, and while his SB% is down to 75%, it’s still well above league average, and half of those can be attributed to David Ross’s rocket of an arm. Tommy’s ERA sits at 4.29, which looks decent next to his 4.60 FIP. Unless he can learn to pitch to a new repertoire and cut the walks and homeruns, there are no appreciable improvements in sight. In fact, the underlying numbers suggest the worst may have yet to come.