Dempster Trade Appears--Thankfully--Dead

The reported trade that would have sent Ryan Dempster to Atlanta in exchange for Randall Delgado and a prospect appears dead, according to multiple reports. While details are still a little sketchy, it sounds like a deal was agreed to in principle between the two clubs and Dempster exercised his 10-5 rights in hopes of being sent to the Dodgers instead. If Dempster doesn't want to be in Atlanta, so be it. While he leads the league in ERA, the underlying numbers paint a picture that's not all that different from the rest of his career.

Nah, dude. You're overrated.

Dempster's 2.11 ERA leads the league, which is wonderful right up until the point where you realize that it has no predictive value whatsoever and is not commensurate with his true talent level. We're talking about a pitcher with a career 4.31 ERA. 35 year-old pitchers don't suddenly get better, especially those whose velocity has declined three straight years. The decline in stuff is evident in his peripherals, as his strikeout rate is the lowest it's been since 2004. So how has he been getting it done this year? His BABIP sits at .245, versus a career .301. While not entirely sustainable, it should be noted that his groundball percentage has fallen for three straight years, so his BABIP may very well not regress to his career average. However, he's gotten extremely lucky on those additional flyballs he's given up, and his HR/FB % sits well below the league average. Combine that with an 83% strand rate, and you're left with a 3.75 xFIP--not terrible, but closer to his 4.00 career average and not worth a high-end prospect like Randall Delgado.

Speaking of Delgado, prospects who put up near league average ERA's and FIP's before turning 22 don't grow on trees. While he did struggle earlier in the year, he's progressively gotten stronger over the season and its easy to see him maturing as a pitcher on the sports biggest stage. More than that, he's under team-control for 5 years and is incredibly cheap, and should yield more than a little surplus value over that time frame. Including him in a deal for a 2-month rent-a-player who is not appreciably better would have been an extremely short sighted move by the front office. Let's take this time to let Bert Blyleven explain to Frank Wren what almost happened:








Luckily, Frank, Dempster doesn't want to be here. Luckily, you get to hold on to a 22 year-old pitcher either to grow in your rotation, or include as part of a deal for, you know, someone worth it, like Greinke. Luckily, you've been afforded an opportunity that Mr. Blyleven didn't get--that is, you get to do this damn thing over again. Let's avoid doing anything that will compromise the future of the rotation, especially with Jurrjens a likely non-tender candidate, Hudson getting old, and Hanson getting expensive--with Scott Boras as his agent, as well.