Separated at Birth - Vladimir Guerrero Sucks at Talk Shows

Welcome to your retro, throw-back, old school Separated at Birth.  Vladimir Guerrero was once a crusher of baseballs and would place opposing pitchers' heads on stakes.  From his days with the Expos to the end of his career, Vlad hit baseballs so hard that I'm surprised none of them disintegrated before leaving the ballpark.  In his spare time, Vlad nightlighted as Arsenio Hall, the ever funny yet horrible talk show host.  There's really not much to say about this one that the pictures don't already say.  Just don't watch his talk shows, it's the same feeling as getting hit in the stomach by his bat.

                            Vlad                                                               Arsenio

Are We in for a Long September?

Last year, the Braves completed an epic collapse as never seen before in baseball...except for that other league in the MLB, as the Red Sox finished out the worst fall from playoffs to layoffs (RIP Terry Francona, fried chicken, and beer).  As September approaches with its temptations of Labor Day Weekend, cooling weather, and college football, the Braves seem to just be trotting along at almost the exact pace of last season.  Last season, the Braves were 73-52 through 125 games, compared to 71-54 this year.

Heading into September however, the Braves were on a tear as they went 17-9 during the month of August.  So far this August, the Braves are stammering, to say the least, with a lukewarm record of 12-10 heading into tonight's game.  This season's last stretch appears to be easier on the club as 28 of their final 37 games are against teams that are decidedly out of the playoffs (compared to 19 last year).  Of course, "decidedly out of the playoffs" is an opinion so take it with a grain of salt.

With the pickup of Paul Maholm at the trade deadline, the Braves have bettered their team ERA from 12th to 4th in the National League.  Their offense isn't slacking either with the 3rd highest run total in the NL.  While naysayers may not have faith or confidence in the team, I believe Frank Wren made the right decision in keeping the core of the team together and not making any big off-season trades.  If, and this is a big if, Brian McCann and Dan Uggla can get going and hitting like we all know they can, the Braves will be dangerous come the playoffs.  Match that with Andrelton Simmons coming off the DL in September and Kris Medlen pitching his little pint-sized pants off, and the Braves seem ready to make a strong push for the division and into the playoffs.  Bust out those foam tomahawks Braves fans, fill the stands, chop until your arms fall off, and lets cheer on Chipper in his last season as the Braves forget what happened last year and stampede their way into the playoffs.

Separated at Birth - Homer Bailey is Batman

One might ask, who is the Batman?  To the layperson, the obvious answer is Bruce Wayne.  These people are on the right trail, but the answer is not that simple.  The Batman is indeed Bruce Wayne; however, Bruce Wayne has an alter ego of his own.  I present to you, Homer Bailey, and he can't stay because he has to return some videotapes.  And if you don't believe me, he used to play for the Louisville Bats...really?  I'm not Sherlock Holmes here...

Bruce

Homer

Patrick

 



After you're done examining the evidence, you probably need to leave because Homer wants you off the F'ing set.

Seperated at Birth - Paul Janish is Late Night

Below, you, the reader, can view the stunningly brilliant smiles of two men with strikingly similar visages. Can one really tell the difference? To the undiscerning eye, they are but one man in very different choices in wardrobe, though one is no less exquisite than the other. A hint: One is former Cincinnati Red Stocking and current Braves shortstop Paul Janish in a pin striped suit, and the other is late night comedian and former host of The Man Show Jimmy Kimmel wearing--with aplomb--a very authentic looking Cincinnati Reds jersey.

What’s Wrong with Tommy Hanson?

Tommy Hanson allowed one run tonight through five innings against a depleted Marlins’ lineup. He gave up one run in his last start, also against the Marlins—an outing that lasted five innings and netted him his 11^th win of the year. Don’t let the end results fool you: these were poor starts, which continue a trend that started last year and has continued to get worse over the course of the 2012 season. Let's dig into his numbers, history, and peripherals to find out where his production is slipping and what he needs to do to improve from here on out.

Prospect Write Up: Joe Terdoslavich

The Braves selected Joey Terdoslavich in the 6^th round of the 2010 Rule IV draft out of Long Beach State University, and as a relatively polished hitter, he’s been moved aggressively through the system since day one. He acquitted himself well against professional pitching in his debut, slashing .302/.355/.410 in Danville and Low-A Rome, while splitting time between first and third base. At this point in his career, there are legitimate concerns about his defense playing in the majors, but it’s the Braves’ belief, as well as mine, that his bat is going to be what carries him up the organizational ladder. At 23 years old, Terdoslavich’s bat is going to be expected to be advanced for his level, as many of the college hitters you see have success in the majors are pushed through their respective organizations fairly quickly and manage to tread water, if not excel, at every stop. First round talents drafted out of college such as Ryan Zimmerman, Troy Tulowitzki, and Ryan Braun forced their way onto major league rosters by their second year in the organization. Even without that blue-chip pedigree, Terdoslavich finds himself in a position to see the majors in the next year. More after the jump.

Dempster Trade Appears--Thankfully--Dead

The reported trade that would have sent Ryan Dempster to Atlanta in exchange for Randall Delgado and a prospect appears dead, according to multiple reports. While details are still a little sketchy, it sounds like a deal was agreed to in principle between the two clubs and Dempster exercised his 10-5 rights in hopes of being sent to the Dodgers instead. If Dempster doesn't want to be in Atlanta, so be it. While he leads the league in ERA, the underlying numbers paint a picture that's not all that different from the rest of his career.

Nah, dude. You're overrated.

Atlanta Braves Win the Dempster Sweepstakes

As confirmed by MLB beat-writer Mark Bowman, Ryan Dempster is now a member of the Atlanta Braves.  There is no word yet on who the Braves have sent to the Cubs, but it is rumored that Randall Delgado will be in the mix.

Below are Dempster's statlines for this year and his career.  Dempster will be a free agent at the end of the year, barring a long-term deal being made with the Braves.  His career numbers are less than stellar; however, he is having an outstanding season this year.

2012

INN	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA
98	76	23	7	27	77	2.11

Career

INN	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA
2140.2	2098	1025	229	967	1842	4.31

Also for those concerned about not getting Zack Greinke, Greinke has said he will test free agency this summer.  Dempster is also set to be a free agent this summer.  It is yet to be seen if the Braves will retain Dempster and still have the opportunity to sign him or Zack Greinke this offseason.  The Braves still have needs for a right-handed hitter and another solid bullpen arm.

Give us your thoughts on how you think Dempster will affect the Braves rotation and your predictions for the Braves playoff chances this year.

UPDATE (8 PM):
Earlier reports indicated the trade was finalized, but Dempster tweeted that there was no trade. Several sources has since recanted their story, and the deal is apparently still in the works. The holdup appears to be Dempster waiving his 10-5 rights. Sources say that Dempster prefers the Dodgers, who have been in on him for the last few weeks, as well. More updates to come once the situation is resolved.

UPDATE (9AM Wednesday):
Frank Wren said in an interview with 680 The Fan (out of Atlanta) this morning that the Dempster deal with the Cubs had parameters that expired yesterday and that the Braves were moving on.  While the Braves are still looking to find that ace-level arm, this can be seen as a near-miss for the Braves.  The team almost traded away a 23 year old under team control with a promising future for a 2 month rental of a career-mediocre pitcher.  The Braves are under the "win-now" method of thinking, but the Dempster trade would've been a bad one especially since the guy clearly did not want to be here.

Prospect Write Up: Christian Bethancourt

Christian Bethancourt continues a long line of high-caliber backstops to come through the Braves organization, joining players such as Brian McCann, Tyler Flowers, Javy Lopez, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Like those before him, he’s climbed numerous prospect rankings, and has been seen as a Top 5 organizational prospect by most as well as being regarded as one of the Top 100 prospects in the MLB. Though 2012 marks his fifth year in the organization, Bethancourt is still only 20 years old, as he was signed out of Panama as a 16 year old in 2008. Bethancourt’s calling card has always been defense, as he’s been named the best defensive catcher in the organization multiple times and has thrown out 38% of attempted thefts in his career, including 43% this year. A lot of his success can be attributed to great footwork, a strong arm, and a quick release. He averages a sub-1.9 pop time to second base, and has been clocked as low as 1.78, which is roughly as quick as Pudge Rodriguez in his prime. His arm is on full display in the video after the jump.

2012 MLB Second Half Predictions

As the Atlanta Braves open the second half of their season tonight against the San Francisco Giants, we here at That Braves Blog bring you our second half predictions.  With eight teams within 2 games in the AL and seven teams within 6 games in the NL, this new wild card format is sure to go down to the wire.  Some of these picks you might consider bold given what we've seen from the first half of the season, while there are certain teams you just can't pick against.  Weigh in with your questions and comments and let us know what you think.

Who should be starting for the AL All-Star team? OR AL fans are twice as smart as NL fans

The 2012 All-Star game will be starting in just a few moments, so I thought I would put up my second blog post about which players should have been selected by the fans to start for the American League All-Star team.

If you would like to see how I made up my team, check out my blog post on who should have been selected by fans for the NL team here.

Here is my "Should Have Been" AL team contrasted with the team selected by the fans.

If you compare the two lists, you see that the fans only selected two players that should be on the team, Robinson Cano and Josh Hamilton.

Robinson Cano is a very strong player and he has the Win Above Replacement Player (WARP) of any second basemen.  Cano also has the second highest WARP of all American League players, exceeded by only Mike Trout.  Cano is a big name player from a big name market, but he is truly deserving of being picked by the fans, unlike his Yankee team mates Curtis Granderson and Derek Jeter.  I can hear the Yankee fans getting rile up at the suggestion that Jeter should not have been selected by the fans.

Another fan favorite, Josh Hamilton, is also deserving of his selection by the fans to the AL All-Star team.  Despite his own personal struggles, Hamilton continues to put up huge numbers, and fans love the idea of a redemption story.  While Hamilton is having a great year, he should not have been the number 1 vote getter in the OF for fans.  That distinction belongs to Mike Trout who is having a stellar year and has WARP of 4.8 as a rookie.  Like Cano, Hamilton is more deserving of the fan selection than his Ranger team mate, Mike Napoli. Napoli has a paltry 0.9 WARP, and his selection baffles me since last I checked the best AL catcher, Joe Mauer, is a big star in his own right.

So the fans got two of the picks right for the AL All-Star team which is twice as many as the one that they got right on the NL team.  Hopefully, fans will get smarter before next year's All-Star selection.  But I doubt it.

How to win the World Series on a Budget

13 Relievers (pronounced: closers) and 12 position players.

It's a crazy idea that you've probably thought about, but no team has the guts to try it.  Nine closers every night instead of a conventional 5 man rotation with a closer, a setup man or two, a long reliever, a mop-up guy, or whatever combination of the above you're going with now.

The Braves currently carry 12 pitchers and 13 position players, so you do sacrifice one bat off the bench, and for the sake of resting pitchers, you might prefer to go with a 14 reliever, 11 position player active roster, further limiting your utility options, but lets explore this and figure out if it might just be worth the sacrifice.

Let's pretend we committed to this 5 years ago and our elite young relievers we drafted in that time are making their way to the big leagues.  You'll recognize some names here, but most you won't.  We were able to get these guys because we drafted them higher than other teams because they fit our strategy better than the conventional one.

Based on first-half numbers lets say these are our 13 guys:

1. Aroldis Chapman 

2. Ernesto Frieri      

3. Kenley Jansen 

4. Craig Stammen 

5. Tom Wilhelmsen  

6. Vinnie Pestano  

7. Jason Grilli  

8. Josh Roenicke 

9. Craig Kimbrel 

10. Ryan Cook 

11. Pedro Strop 

12. Tim Collins 

13. Fernando Rodney 

Carrying 13 pitchers you will have to use one guy 3 days in a row before he gets rest, but everyone else will get a day off 1 out of 3 days.  Carrying 14 pitchers you wouldn't have to use anyone 3 days in a row.

For the most part these are young guys, and therefore inexpensive.  You get a lot of innings per dollar here.  There is also an expensive veteran thrown in for leadership in Fernando Rodney.  I chose him because he is expensive and having a good year.  A guy with an attitude like Papelbon could be more beneficial for the leadership role, but Rodney is having a better year right now.

Now, this is a collection of some of the best players so far this year, so I won't compare them to the Braves pitching staff.  I'll compare them to the team that has given up the fewest runs this year, the Washington Nationals. (Braves are ranked 12th)  The Nats have some elite starters, middle relief, and a closer, so their performance this year is about as good as you can get from a conventional pitching staff.

INNINGS PITCHED:

All-reliever rotation  505.2

Nats pitching staff:   745

This is the biggest issue with this strategy.  Few relievers are actually throwing the 112 and 2/3 innings (assuming no extra innings) per year it would take to finish a season with 13 relievers.  But, all of these guys do throw every day as part of their conditioning, it's just not always in a game.  With the right conditioning, the right personnel, and a deep minor league system, this can be done successfully.

ERA:

All-reliever rotation  1.89 = 157 derived total allowed (1.89 ERA x (745 innings / 9)

Nats pitching staff:   3.19  = 264 total allowed (3.19 ERA x (745 innings / 9)

This is the biggest attraction to the strategy.  Assuming you can condition these guys to perform at the same high level while pitching more often, you will give up a lot fewer runs, 1.32 per game in this case.  Want to win those 1 run games?  Try giving up 1.32 fewer every single game.  Relievers always say they'd rather pitch more often than less often anyway, and since we've stockpiled all these young arms, our guys can handle it.  This is arguably a big part of Venters' struggles this year.  Last year he was everyday Jonny and he was lights out.  This year Freddy is trying to save him for September/October, and he sucks.

MONEY:

All-reliever rotation = $9.8M

Nats pitching staff = $34.5M

If ERA is the biggest attraction, this is attraction 1A.  This frees up $24.7M to spend on offense.

Here are some examples of what $24.7M can get you on offense in terms of 2012 salaries:

Prince Fielder = $23M

Matt Holliday = $17M

Jose Bautista = $14M

Robinson Cano = $14M

Josh Hamilton = $13.75M

Joey Votto = $9.5M

Ryan Braun = $6M

Carlos Gonazalez = $5M

Andrew McCutchen = $500K (this kid is in for a payday)

The game has been moving in this direction as starters go 5 to 6 innings max and relievers are brought in for matchups between the 6th and 9th innings.  This would allow you to play matchups every single inning based on the 3 hitters you know are about to come up against you.

You have to commit to this strategy as an entire organization, from the draft throughout the minors.  You draft pitchers with the best stuff, even if they don't have stamina or 4 solid pitches.  You're looking for young Mariano Riveras who have one pitch that is so disgusting they can pitch an inning at a time almost every day and no one can hit it.  You use the off-season and spring training to condition your pitchers to throw 20 pitches at a time at maximum effort, two days in a row, with a day off after that.  

You also have to have a huge pipeline flowing, as you'll see guys like Jonny Venters dominate in 2011 and can't get anybody out in 2012.  Good relievers, other than Rivera, are mostly flash in a pan type guys.  You also want to let them go when they get to the point in their careers where they're not cheap anymore.

I think within the next 50 years a team will try this, and when they do, they'll win the World Series.  Then everyone will adopt the same strategy, and the economic advantage will disappear.  That's why I say we all pool our money, buy the Braves, and be the first movers on this.  Who's with me?